4/18/2023 0 Comments Peter graven ohsu![]() ![]() 17, 2021, Oregon's governor and leading state officials issued a plea to residents to get vaccinated or seek boosters ahead of an expected surge in infections. ![]() Graven said he’d drawn on recently published hospitalization rates in Denmark.īut Graven noted that there’s an unprecedented degree of uncertainty in the numbers he’s using to estimate the potential for spread and the virulence of the new variant, and that his forecast could be less accurate than his others as a result.Ĭlackamas Community College nursing student Nina Tan draws up doses at a pediatric COVID-19 vaccine clinic held at Clackamas Town Center, Nov. That compares to a peak of about 1,200 at the height of Oregon’s delta surge. The detailed model shows COVID-19 hospitalizations could peak at over 3,000 some time in February. Graven released an updated forecast Friday predicting the omicron variant will drive a wave of severe illness that will eclipse previous surges of hospitalizations in Oregon. Graven’s forecast isn’t peer-reviewed science, but it’s influential in part because it’s been accurate in the past, predicting the peak hospitalizations during Oregon’s delta surge. Peter Graven, the lead data scientist in the hospital’s business intelligence unit, has developed a data model and forecast that OHA and others use to estimate the impact of case surges - and policy measures - on hospitalization rates in Oregon. “OHSU and other health systems in the Portland metro area are completely full,” Edwards said.Įdwards said metro-area hospital capacity is still so constrained, they are periodically turning away transfer patients from rural areas who need a higher level of care than is available in their local hospital. ![]() Hospitals are just starting to work through a backlog of surgeries that were postponed during the delta surge, and are treating patients whose illnesses are more acute due to delayed care during the pandemic. Renee Edwards, the chief medical officer for OHSU Health. The arrival of the new variant is a “gut punch” for health care workers and hospitals, which have very little capacity to absorb extra patients, according to Dr. It’s a tougher situation in some rural Oregon counties, where booster locations are few and far between. “Boosters work and are incredibly effective at continuing your protection against this virus and hospitalization.”īooster doses have been relatively available in the Portland metro area, though figuring out how to find and schedule one can be a challenge. The focus is now on measures intended to blunt the potential for hospitalizations: Getting booster shots to one million more Oregonians focusing those shots on older, vulnerable people creating new medical sites to deliver monoclonal antibody therapies and antiviral drugs and adding health care staff.īrown said she was calling on one million Oregonians to step up and get their booster dose by the end of January and directed OHA to expand the state’s distribution capacity to reach that goal. In response to the dismal forecast, Brown and the Oregon Health Authority announced a major, immediate overhaul of the state’s pandemic strategy. “We are going to do everything we can to maximize that window.” “What is clear from the experiences of the UK and other countries is that we only have a few weeks to prepare before omicron hits our health care systems and communities in full force,” Gov. However, the model still shows the potential for Oregon’s hospitals to be overwhelmed. OHSU’s modeling takes into account a lower hospitalization rate due to the new variant, because it typically causes milder infections. By February, hospitalizations from that surge could peak at numbers far higher than the delta variant’s September surge.Ī screenshot from a press conference featuring Oregon Gov. The latest pandemic modeling from Oregon Health & Science University predicts the state has about three weeks until a surge of COVID-19 infections due to the highly transmissible omicron variant. The omicron variant of COVID-19 is spreading very rapidly in other parts of the world and is capable of infecting people who’ve been fully vaccinated. ![]()
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